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24 March 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #157

War in Ukraine: Day 28

Biden’s concerns on Russian cyberattacks; Italy's PM Mario addresses parliament; UK cabinet disagrees over planning Laws

War in Ukraine: Day 28
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Zelensky’s address in Japanese Parliament; call for protests; humanitarian corridors
Zelensky calls for global protests
On 23 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky urged people worldwide to organise protests against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He added: “Come with Ukrainian symbols to support Ukraine, to support freedom, to support life…Come to your squares, to your streets, make yourselves visible and heard.” His call came as an action to mark one month since Russia invaded Ukraine. He reached out to the global citizens through a virtual video address.

On the same evening, he mentioned the broader implications of Russia’s war. He related Russia's invasion as a war not only against Ukraine but a war against freedom. He further stated that this was only the beginning for Russia to invade Ukrainian lands. He added: “Russia is trying to defeat the freedom of all people in Europe. Of all the people in the world. It tries to show that only crude and cruel force matters.”

Also, on 23 March, Zelensky addressed Japanese Parliament virtually and criticized the UN. He said: “Neither the United Nations nor the UN Security Council have functioned. Reforms are needed.” He further praised Japan for being the first Asian country to pressure Russia. Japan followed the steps of the Western allies and imposed tough sanctions on Russian institutions after Moscow invaded Ukraine. Zelensky further spoke about the Russian attacks on the Chernobyl site and related it to Japan’s 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster to warn about his country's dangers. 

Nine humanitarian corridors
On 23 March, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said an agreement had been reached to evacuate civilians trapped in towns and cities. However, Russia and Ukraine have not reached an agreement to establish a corridor in Mariupol. Vereshchuk said the people who could leave the port city of Mariupol would find transport near Berdyansk. 

On the same day, Luhansk Governor Serhiy Gaidai stated that a local ceasefire was agreed to evacuate citizens. The ceasefire would come into force on 24 March at 0900 am local time, 0700 GMT.

Russia’s campaign in the east, north, west, and centre
On 23 March, an article by France24 stated that on Day 28 of the Ukraine war, Russia’s campaign was stalled, and Ukrainian forces were also able to launch counter-attacks in places. Russia did encircle the city of Kharkiv, which was earlier heavily bombed. Capturing the city  would give them a strategic advantage in the east. 

In the north, Russia reinforced its positions around the capital of Kyiv. However, Ukrainian forces had also launched counter-attacks in the city’s outskirts. In the south, Russia has continued to siege the port city of Mariupol. Zelensky called for a humanitarian corridors, as he claimed nearly 100,000 people were stuck in Mariupol living in inhumane conditions. Not much movement has occurred in the west and centre since last week’s deadly airstrikes. 

Chernihiv besieged
On 23 March, Ukraine forces claimed that Russian forces had taken the city and the people of Chernihiv hostage. Local authorities have imposed rationing of drinking water for the civilians. As reported by The Guardian: “About 150,000 people are stuck in the northern city with little hope of aid after Russia cut them off from the capital, Kyiv, 100 miles south, by bombing a road bridge across the Desna River.”

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia 

Tit for Tat, US diplomats in Moscow, expelled
On 23 March, Russia served the US embassy in Moscow an official declaration that mentioned a list of diplomats as "persona non grata." Moscow's steps came as Washington had expelled 12 Russian diplomats from the country's UN mission in New York. A US State Department spokesperson said: "We can confirm that the US Embassy received a list of diplomats declared 'persona non grata' from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 23 March."

Russian stock market reopens
On 23 March, the Russian Central Bank announced that the country's stock market would resume trading by 24 March. The Moscow Exchange had been closed since 25 February following Russia's invasion. This was the longest time the exchange had remained closed since the fall of the Soviet Union. As reported by The Moscow Times: "The trading day will be shortened to just over four hours, with deals starting at 9:50 a.m. Moscow time and closing at 2 p.m. Short selling will also be banned, the regulator announced, in an attempt to limit speculative bids that could send the market into freefall."

Peskov's response to US' pressure on G20 
On 23 March, Kremlin's Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned the US' pressure on the G20 countries. He said: "As for G20, it is a multilateral format, different opinions exist there. It is clear that the Americans will continue pressing various states, but, as we see, a number of states prefer to adhere to their own independent, sovereign point of view." He further accused the US of exerting blatant and undiplomatic pressure on all states of the G20. His response came as earlier the US National Advisor Jake Sullivan talked about the possibility of excluding Russia from the G20. 

Residents of DPR and LPR granted asylum in Russia
On 23 March, TASS reported about the citizens of Donetsk and Lugansk (DPR and LPR). They arrived in Russia last month and were granted temporary asylum. TASS stated: "Between 18 February and 16 March, 2022, a total of 1,515 residents of DPR, LPR, and Ukraine filed requests for temporary asylum on the territory of the Russian Federation." However, out of the total number of residents, about 1204 were granted asylum.

Moscow's response to Warsaw
On 23 March, Moscow said it would react to Warsaw's actions if it expelled Russian diplomats from Poland. The Kremlin's Press Secretary said: "We saw and heard such media reports (about the possible expulsion of Russian diplomats from Poland - TASS). If these reports turn out to be true, then this is a continuing freefall, as they say, in all fields of our relations." This comes as a Polish web portal referring to government sources that said that the authorities had decided to expel 40 Russian diplomats. 

On the same day, Russia condemned Poland's suggestion of sending international peacekeepers into Ukraine. Peskov said: "It would be a very reckless and extremely dangerous decision." Russia's response came as Poland said it would formally submit a proposal for an international peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the NATO summit. Peskov further warned that this could lead to a direct confrontation between Russian and NATO forces. 

Clarifying the proceeds of the special operation in Ukraine
On 23 March, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that Russia's special military operations were going as planned. He stated: "It [the special operation] is going on strictly in accordance with the plans and with purposes that were established beforehand." However, Peskov added that the operation was a serious one and mentioned that the operation's goals have not been achieved yet, and therefore would continue.  

Chubais Quits Kremlin
On 23 March, Kremlin's Climate Envoy Anatoly Chubais left Russia after quitting his position. He was opposed to Russia's operations in Ukraine. Chubais had been pushing for Russia to adopt more green policies. He played a crucial role in the 1990s and was an integral part of Russia's privatisation drive and transition to a market economy. Chubais is said to have moved to Turkey and had no plans of returning to Russia. 

Russia uses Attrition 
On 23 March, a report by The Moscow Times stated how "Russia's forces in Ukraine appear to be turning to a war of attrition with devastating effect on civilians." This comes as the Russians were not able to swiftly gain a victory in Ukraine as President Vladimir Putin had earlier planned. The Russian army has now resorted to siege warfare to demoralise the Ukrainian population.

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 23 March, US Pentagon issued a statement on proceedings of Ukrainian authorities on the ground against Russia. A spokesperson from the US Defense Department said to the reporters that Ukraine forces were “very smartly, very nimbly, very creatively,” countering Russia in various parts of Ukraine. He stated: “The Ukrainians are putting up a very stiff defence... the Russians have not achieved any of the strategic objectives that they set out to - or certainly not without loss.

On 23 March, Reuters reported the plan of the US and other Western countries on excluding Russia from the G20. Previously Russia upon the annexation of Crimea was excluded from G7. A similar move in the G20 forum would impact the economy further and result in adding more economic sanctions on Russia.

On the question of ruling out the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied agreeing. Peskov stated that, under “existential threat,” Russia may use such arms. The response was condemned by the US Pentagon. It also triggered criticism from US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. He said: “I don’t see how you can see it any other way but as dangerous when Russia is looking for a possible excuse for the use of low-yield nuclear weapons.”

Poland
On 23 March, Poland announced to expel 45 Russian diplomats who were alleged to be spying. One amongst were found to have worked in the archive of Warsaw’s civil records office, was arrested to be put in custody for three months. In response, Russia’s Ambassador to Poland denied any such accusations of the Polish Foreign Ministry.

NATO
On 23 March, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg before the meeting with Western leaders in Brussels warned that it must ensure to not let the war escalate further. He confirmed China’s role in providing political support to Russia and affirmed to address. Apart from the warning, Stoltenberg announced the deployment of four new NATO battlegroups in eastern Europe in Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania.

The UK
On 23 March, the UK Ministry of Defense reported on the movement of Russian troops. It found that the forces were moving from the north into south further from Kharkiv and Mariupol. On the same day, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that people from northeast of Hertfordshire were coming together to provide support and help the refugee families escaping from Ukraine. Johnson also thanked all the people involved in the refugee schemes. The first scheme is the “Family visa scheme,” where Ukrainians who have extended family residing in the UK will be granted the status to remain or settle on proving the permanent residence proof. The other scheme “Homes for Ukraine,” allows people in the UK to host Ukrainians for at least six months.

Germany
On 23 March, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pointed out the failure in the advancement of Russian troops and criticised that despite Russia’s destructions of civilian buildings, there was a lack in the offensive. He further asked Russia to stop the war and urged to “find a diplomatic solution.” On the sanctions, he said: “We are constantly tightening the sanctions, but [the measures] should not hurt European states harder than the Russian leadership.” Scholz also warned on how the sanctions are not just affecting Russia but also pushing Europe and Germany’s economy into recession.

The Global Fallouts: International implications of the Ukraine war
MNCs
On 23 March, Elon Musk’s Starlink reported to have sent its dishes to Ukraine for internet support. SpaceX President said that the kits sent to Ukraine were massively funded by private sources and will be plotted in the southern port of Odesa. Apart from this, the Swiss good company, Nestle announced its withdrawal of brands such as KitKat and Nesquik from Russia. The decision comes after the criticism received from Zelensky for continuing its business in Russia.

Japan
On 23 March, Japan's Prime Minister expressed concern about Russia’s demand for rouble payments for the energy sold to “unfriendly nations.” Japan accounts for 4.1 per cent of Russian crude oil export and 7.2 per cent in gas export. Russia listed Japan as unfriendly with the US, the EU and other countries to counter the export ban and freezing of assets by Japan. Japan’s Prime Minister announced his plans to disclose further sanction on Russia in the upcoming G7 meet.

Egypt
On 23 March, Egypt requested IMF to support through its comprehensive economic programme. As Egypt’s economy is under stress due to the exit of foreign investors out of fear of repercussions of a Russian invasion. The government of Egypt allowed the depreciation of its currency by 14 per cent after November 2020. The IMF appreciated the efforts of the authorities on “recent actions to expand targeted social protection.” So far, Egypt has reached to IMF thrice in the last few years for billions of loans, with the implication of war on the economy it is expected to only worsen.

References: 

US pressures G20 on Russia, but number of states retain independent positions — Kremlin,” TASS, 23 March 2022
Over 1,200 residents of DPR, LPR, Ukraine granted temporary asylum in Russia in past month,” TASS, 23 March 2022
Moscow vows to hit back at Warsaw, if Poland expels Russian diplomats, warns Kremlin,” TASS, 23 March 2022 
Special operation in Ukraine proceeds according to plan, says Kremlin,” TASS, 23 March 2022 
Russian Stock Market to Reopen Thursday After Unprecedented Pause,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022 
"Putin Aide Chubais Quits Kremlin, Leaves Russia,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022 
Daphné Benoit, “Russia Turns to Attrition One Month Into Ukraine War,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022
Russian Stock Market to Reopen Thursday After Unprecedented Pause,” The Moscow Times, 23 March 2022
Russia says sending international peacekeepers to Ukraine would be 'very reckless’,” Reuters, 23 March 2022
"Russia moves to expel U.S. diplomats in tit-for-tat move,” Reuters, 23 March 2022
"Ukraine's Zelenskyy urges global protests against Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 23 March 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key events from day 28,” Al Jazeera, 23 March 2022
Battleground Ukraine: Day 28 of Russia's invasion,France24, 23 March 2022
Luhansk Governor says local ceasefire agreed to evacuate civillians,” The Guardian, 23 March 2022
Nine humanitarian corridors agreed for Wednesday – Ukraine's deputy PM,” Reuters, 23 March 2022 
Daniel Boffery, “Chernihiv rations drinking water as Russia accused of taking city hostageThe Guardian, 23 March 2022
Zelenskyy slams UN over failure on Ukraine in Japan address,” Al Jazeera, 24 March 2022
BBC Live,” BBC, 23 March 2022
Egypt requests IMF support as economy buffeted by Ukraine spillover,” Reuters, 23 March 2022
Japan unsure how Russia will execute rouble payments for energy sold to 'unfriendly' nations,” Reuters, 23 March 2022


IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan 

ITALY
Prime Minister Mario addresses parliament on Russia
On 23 March, Prime Minister Mario Draghi asked China to stop supporting Russia and to participate in peace efforts over Ukraine. He also expressed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in agreeing on a ceasefire which could lead to further negotiations. Draghi stated: “The diplomatic effort can only succeed when Moscow really wants it too.” Draghi was also concerned about the shortage of computer chips and the need to prioritize the production of semiconductors in Europe. (“Italy's Draghi urges China to support peace efforts in Ukraine,” Reuters, 23 March 2022)

THE UK
Cabinet in disagreement over ease of Planning Laws
On 23 March, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's proposal to ease Planning Laws on onshore windmills was disagreed by some in the Cabinet. The government has increased attention to renewable energy and is planning to release a new Energy Security Strategy. The Planning restrictions that former Prime Minister David Cameron imposed in 2015 gave local councils effective veto over projects and are proposed to be eased. Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, supports easing planning laws to make it smoother to approve plans for more onshore windmills. (Ione Wells, “Cabinet split over changing planning law to allow more wind farms,” BBC, 23 March 2022)

ENVIRONMENT
Survey of Isle of Man territorial seas for carbon stores
On 23 March, a team of scientists began surveying the Isle of Man's territorial waters for plants that store carbon as part of a broader effort to reduce emissions. The study would lead to the understanding of how much carbon is stored in the seas around the island. Further, how to manage any "destructive practices" that release the carbon stores, and to restore marine vegetation in specific places. The National Oceanographic Centre and Swansea University, Wales are working with the island’s government on a year-long project to document "blue carbon". A marine management plan will be developed over the next two years once the information has been collected. (“Scientists begin Isle of Man marine carbon stores drone search,” BBC, 23 March 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
US President Biden urges private firms to level up their cyber-defences
On 23 March, US President Joe Biden called on private companies and organizations to increase their cyber-security precautions, concerning cyber-attacks from Russia. The US and the West are concerned about the three Russian-based cyberattacks- BlackEnergy, NotPetya and the cyberattack that targeted the Colonial pipeline. Ukraine has been relatively unaffected by the Russian cyber-offensives, but experts are now concerned that Russia may launch a cyber-offensive against Ukraine's allies. If a NATO country is the victim of a cyber-attack that results in death or significant irreversible damage, Article 5 of the alliance's collective defense clause, could be invoked. (Joe Tidy, “The three Russian cyber-attacks the West most fears,” BBC, 23 March 2022)

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